When the Big Sales Fail: the impact of high-profile failures on market confidence

Gasps punctuated the room at Sotheby’s New York Modern Evening auction this May when top lot, Alberto Giacometti’s Grande Tête Mince, failed to sell. Consigned by the Soloviev Foundation, the sale followed Sheldon Solow’s approach of rejecting guarantees for an enhanced hammer-deal entitling him to a cut of the auction house’s commission. A risky move that paid off in the past may be too much of a gamble in the climate of today’s market.

Alberto Giacometti, Grande Tête Mince, 1955. Courtesy of Sotheby’s

The bust’s failure to sell garnered enough negative attention to overshadow other successes of the night. It was the crown jewel, intended to be the highest selling lot of the evening. The work was exhibited at the 1956 Venice Biennale and is described as “a foundational work of Modern sculpture”[1] by Simon Shaw, Sotheby’s senior advisor in Modern and Impressionist art. As a result, its pre-sale estimate surpassed $70 million USD. The unstable economy should have encouraged a minimum price guarantee to be set, ensuring a sale for the consigner. However, they hoped to maximise the sales potential for the foundation’s charitable goals.[2]

Bidding began at a steep $59 million USD. While there was some action at first, encouragement from the auctioneer was not enough to rouse the crowd and bidding screeched to a halt at $64.25 million
USD, below the pre-sale estimate. Modern Art’s strength against market downturn as well as the desirability of Giacometti were not immune to the unreliability of a weak market. Interestingly, another of Giacometti’s sculptures, Femme Debout (Poseuse I) was presented at the same auction and sold for $6.8 million (including fees) USD, at the high-end of its much lower $4-6 million USD estimate.

Alberto Giacometti, Femme Debout (Poseuse I), 1954. Courtesy of Sotheby’s

While the bust’s failure to sell received the most attention, several other big names met similar fates. Henri Matisse’s Le Bras, estimated between $4-6 million USD also went unsold.[3] Over the past three years, Matisse has set records for paintings in the United States above this estimate, with a record of $13 million USD in 2022 despite a $3.4 million USD average. As of last year, Matisse averaged $2.6 million USD, with a record price of $8.3 million USD, a decrease from previous years.[4] Le Bras estimates were slightly inflated from previous averages, however, reasonable considering Matisse’s records in recent years.

Henri Matisse, Le Bras, 1938. Courtesy of Sotheby’s

Also among the ranks was Edgar Degas’ Madame de Rutté, estimated between $1.5-2 million USD. In 2024, Degas’ record and average price for paintings in the US was $3.2 million USD, however, in 2023 he averaged $265,000 USD, with a record of $320,000 USD.[5] Again, while slightly inflated, the estimates were reasonable considering the artist’s recent sales history. Despite this both lots went unsold, demonstrating their ultimate fragility despite softer estimates.

Edgar Degas, Madame de Rutté, 1875. Courtesy of Sotheby’s

Auction experts determined that the aggressive estimates of Grand Tête Mince were the “original sin.”[6] The highest record price for a Giacometti sculpture in the United States was $126 million USD back in 2015. While 2021 saw a record of $68 million USD, not far off from this year’s estimate, Giacometti’s performance has been lower in recent years. Between 2022 and 2024, his record prices hovered below $30 million USD. The average price between these years varied from $7.9 million USD in 2022, $10.1 million USD in 2023, and $11.4 million USD in 2024. 2024 saw a record sale price of $22.8 million USD.[7] The $70 million USD estimate of this year’s sale is over triple last year’s record price.

This event prompts a question regarding the risks of having or foregoing guarantees. The choice to forego a guarantee is questionable, considering third party guarantors can be secured to hedge the risk for high profile Modern and Impressionist works, such as Giacometti’s bust.[8] However, with uncertainty in the market, it is understandable that an auction house would prefer to avoid a house guarantee to protect themselves from the possibility of paying it out. In terms of third-party guarantors, perhaps no one was willing to take a 70 million dollar risk, despite Giacometti’s appeal.

In this instance, it was the consigner who rejected a guarantee. The issue with guarantees is they can manipulate the market. Rebecca Fodden states that guarantees “distort the market and inflate prices.”[9] When the guarantor commits to a guaranteed sales price, a higher baseline is established for other bidders to exceed.[10] The Soloviev Foundation hoped to allow the object to perform naturally, allowing bidders to participate without competing with the guarantee. While the foundation’s rejection of a guarantee and their confidence in its performance could have spurred bidders, it seemed to have the opposite effect. While bidding managed to reach $64.2 million USD, the foundation preferred to withdraw the object rather than sell for a lower price.

Charles Stewart, Sotheby’s CEO, stated afterwards that “nobody lost money” and that the work was returned to the owner: “They’re fine.”[11] While this is true, in an already unstable market, high-profile failures such as this could be detrimental to market confidence. Giacometti, Matisse, and Degas are renowned, historically important artists and seeing their works go unsold demonstrates the current fragility of even the most established artists.

While no one lost money, an artwork can become stigmatised after being burned, making it more difficult to sell in the future. The high-end market has already suffered during the recession and seeing major artists go unsold does nothing to improve conditions as buyers become increasingly wary. While buyers lacked confidence, there is something optimistic about the faith the Soloviev Foundation had in the sculpture’s potential. Perhaps the key to restoring confidence is maintaining this faith in the hopes that it one day pays off.

Edwina Keary

Art Markets Co-Editor, MADE IN BED

Footnotes

[1] Katya Kazakina, $70 Million Giacometti Heads to Sotheby’s for High-Stakes May Sale, Artnet News, 21 April 2025.

[2] Tim Schneider, Anatomy of a $70 Million Auction Flop, The New York Times, 14 May 2025.

[3] Maxwell Rabb, $70 Million Giacometti Fails to Sell at Sotheby’s Modern Evening Sale, Artsy, 14 May 2025.

[4] Artprice, Henri Matisse Intuitive Market, Records.

[5] Artprice, Edgar Degas Intuitive Market, Records.

[6] Tim Schneider, 2025.

[7] Artprice, Alberto Giacometti Intuitive Market, Records.

[8] Anna Brady and Anny Shaw, Guarantees: the next big art market scandal? The Art Newspaper, 12 November 2018.

[9] Anna Brady and Anny Shaw, 2018.

[10] Rebecca Fodden, Auction House Guarantees: Friend or Foe? Boodle Harrison, 01 January 2017.

[11] Daniel Cassady, Giacometti Bust Flops While Frank Lloyd Wright Lamp Soars at Sotheby’s $186.4 M. Modern Sale, Artnet News, 14 May 2025.